Models, Systems, Guides for Decision Making in the Literature

Many authors writing about decision making offer no model, system, or guide for decision making. However, hundreds, even thousands, of others do. To save you the time of researching other models, I present here from my extensive research 21 typical ones from books, internet sites, and articles. At the end I show the SM-14 model for purposes of comparison.

Bad Decision Making Situation

That so many model formulas are taught is a bad situation. There is a need for a standard complete, well-researched one such as SM-14.

Here are some of those who do offer a model formula and who deserve credit for doing so.

Model: The Analytic Hierarchy Process (1985) edited by Golden, Wasil, and Harker.

1. Define the problem
2. Select the decision group
3. Identify issues and objectives
4. Develop the structure of the hierarchy
5. Judge the importance of the decision factors
6. Evaluate alternatives
7. Report on results
8. Check reasonableness
9. Finalize choices
10. Documentation

Model: An Introduction to Management (1985) by Anderson, Sweeney, and Williams.
“We begin our study of quantitative approaches to decision making by considering a five-step procedure:

(1) problem definition,
(2) model development,
(3) data preparation,
(4) model solution, and
(5) report generation

Model: Introduction to Management Science (1983), by Lee and Olson.

Steps in the Scientific Method &
their Equivalents in Management Decision Making

THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD		MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKING
1. Define the problem 2. Collect data 3. Develop hypotheses 4. Test hypothesis 5. Analyze results 6. Draw conclusion	F	1. Define the decision problem 2. Search for data and information 3. Generate alternative courses of action 4. Analyze feasible alternatives 5. Select the best course of action 6. Implement the decision and evaluate results

Model: The Professional Decision Thinker (1987) by Heirs.

The Decision-Thinking Process

Stage 1 The question
Stage 2 The alternatives
Stage 3 The consequences
Stage 4 The decision

Model: The Shape of Automation for Men and Management (1985) by Simon.
“The first phase of the decision-making process – searching the environment for conditions calling for decision – I shall call intelligence activity (borrowing the military meaning of intelligence). The second phase – inventing, developing, and analyzing possible courses of action – I shall call design activity. The third phase – selecting a particular course of action from those available – I shall call choice activity.”

Model: Thinking with Equations (1988) by Wales and Stager.
“Decision-making, the common denominator of human reasoning, involves a process of five thinking operations:

Define the Situation with a diagram,
State the Goal along with its units,
Generate Ideas for physical and mental ways to arrive at a solution,
Prepare the GENI Plan, and then
Take Action.”

Model: Decision Making Procedure from www.virtualsalt.com (1998).

1. Identify the decision to be made together with the goals it should achieve.
2. Get the facts.
3. Develop alternatives.
4. Rate each alternative.
5. Rate the risk of each alternative.
6. Make the decision.

Model: Thought and Knowledge (1989) by Diane Halpern.
In a chapter on decision making, Halpern recommends preparing a decision worksheet using the following steps:

Defining the problem
Generating the alternatives
Listing the considerations
Weighing the considerations
Weighing the alternatives
Calculating a decision

Model: The Paradox of Choice – Why More Is Less (2005), by Barry Schwartz
Most good decisions will involve these steps:

1. Figure out your goal or goals.
2. Evaluate the importance of each goal.
3. Array the options.
4. Evaluate how likely each of the options is to meet your goals.
5. Pick the winning option.
6. Later use the consequences of your choice to modify your goals, the importance you assign them, and the way you evaluate future possibilities.

Model: Decisions, Decisions – The Art of Effective Decision Making (2002), by David A. Welch.
All decisions have three parts:

(1) you identify your goal
(2) you identify your options
(3) you choose from among your options

Model: Decision Traps (1989), by J. Edward Russo.

“Decision Phases”

1. Framing
2. Intelligence gathering
3. Coming to conclusions
4. Learning from Experience

Model: Decision-making Process from www.businessballs.com:

1. Define and clarify the issue.
2. Gather all the facts and understand their causes.
3. Think about or brainstorm possible options and solutions.
4. Consider and compare the pros and cons of each option.
5. Select the best option.
6. Explain your decision to those involved and affected, and follow up to ensure proper and effective implementation.

Model: Teaching Decision Making to Adolescents (1991), by Baron and Brown.
9 Step Decision Making Model:

1. Distinguishing between decision calling for different decision-making models (e.g., decisions under certainty, risk, and uncertainty
2. Identifying and defining a decision-making situation
3. Listing action alternatives
4. Identifying criteria for comparing the alternatives and the possible consequences of each alternative
5. Assessing the probability of possible consequences (when necessary)
6. Assessing the utilities of possible consequences (when necessary)
7. Evaluating each alternative in terms of its attractiveness and probability
8. Assessing the value of collecting additional information
9. Evaluating the decision-making process

Model: Steps to Decision Making from www.time-management-guide.com:

1. Identify the purpose of your decision.
2. Gather information.
3. Identify the principles to judge the alternatives.
4. Brainstorm and list different possible choices.
5. Evaluate each choice in terms of its consequences.
6. Determine the best alternative.
7. Put the decision into action.
8. Evaluate the outcome of your decision and action steps.

Model: Decision Making – A Psychological Analysis of Conflict, Choice and Commitment (1977), by Irving L. Jones and Leon Nann.

Five Stages:

1. Appraising the challenge
2. Surveying alternatives
3. Weighing alternatives
4. Deliberating about commitment
5. Adhering despite negative feedback

Model: Gubbins Matrix of Thinking Skills as listed by Sternberg in Essays on the Intellect (1985) editied by Link.

A. Stating desired goal/condition
B. Stating obstacles to goal/condition
C. Identifying alternatives
D. Examining alternatives
E. Ranking alternatives
F. Choosing best alternative
G. Evaluation actions

Model: Smart Choices – A Practical Guide to Better Decisions (1999), by Hammond et al.
Eight elements of smart choices:

Problems
Objectives
Alternatives
Consequences

Tradeoffs
Uncertainty
Risk tolerance
Linked decisions

Model: Thinking Skills Throughout the Curriculum (1987) (decision making suggested by Beyer relative to social studies), by Barbara Presseisen.

1. Define the goal.
2. Identify obstacles to achieving the goal.
3. Identify alternatives
4. Analyze alternatives.
5. Rank alternatives
6. Choose the “best” alternative.

Model: An Introduction to Management Science – Quantitative Approaches to Decision Making (1976), by David R. Anderson et al.

Qualitative Quantitative
Analysis based on managerial Analysis based upon
experience and judgment mathematical techniques

Summary and evaluation
Decision

Model: Harvard Business Review on Decision Making (2001) article by Peter Drucker (1967).
Sequential Steps in Decision Making:

1. Classifying the problem
2. Defining the problem
3. Specifying the answer to the problem
4. Deciding what is “right” rather than what is acceptable
5. Building into the decision the action to carry it out
6. Testing the validity and effectiveness of the decision against actual course of events

Model: Research Institute – Staff Recommendations Report Reducing the Risks in Decision Making (1968).
Five Steps in Decision Making Process:

1. Define the problem – what do I have to decide?
2. Gather the relevant data.
3. Explore the alternatives – what are the possible courses of action?
4. Consider the probable consequences of each alternative.
5. Select the most suitable alternative and act on it.

Standard Model Needed

As you can see from reviewing all the model formulas offered, people are not educated to work in unity on decision making. A model formula such as SM-14 has resulted from 18 years of research and review of hundreds of formulas for the scientific method, problem solving, and decision making.

Model: SM-14 as described in www.decisionmaking.org.

Stage 1 Curious observation
Stage 2 Is there a problem?
Stage 3 Goals and planning
Stage 4 Search, explore and gather the evidence
Stage 5 Generate creative and logical alternative solutions
Stage 6 Evaluate the evidence
Stage 7 Make the educated guess (hypothesis)
Stage 8 Challenge the hypothesis
Stage 9 Reach a conclusion
Stage 10 Suspend judgment
Stage 11 Take action

Supporting Ingredients

Stage 12 Creative, non-logical, logical, and technical methods
Stage 13 Procedural principles and theories
Stage 14 Attributes and thinking skills

Model: SM-4 (a short version of SM-14)

Problem
Alternatives
Evaluate
Challenge