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CONTENTS OF 48-PAGE BOOKLET:
  •  The Big Picture
  •  Problem Solving and Decision Making
  •  The Decision Making Process
  •  System of Decision Making and Problem Solving
  •  Intuitive Decision Making
  •  Short Formula for Decision Making
  •  Full Model and Formula
  •  Specific Individual “Sciences”


  • STAGES AS APPLIED TO DECISION MAKING:
    1. Curious Observation
    2. Is There a Problem?
    3. Goals and Planning
    4. Search, Explore and Gather the Evidence
    5. Generate Creative & Logical Alternative Solutions
    6. Evaluate the Evidence
    7. Make the Educated Guess (Hypothesis)
    8. Challenge the Hypothesis
    9. Reach a Conclusion
    10. Suspend Judgment
    11. Take Action

    SUPPORTING INGREDIENTS:
    12. Creative, Non-Logical, Logical & Technical Methods
    13. Procedural Principles & Theories
    14. Attributes & Thinking Skills

  •  Group or Team Decision Making
  •  Management Decision Making Technique
  •  Managerial Decision Making
  •  Behavior Decision Making Theory
  •  Accounting for Risks Involved
  •  Decision Making under Uncertainty, Forecasting and Predicting
  •  Miscellaneous Strategies
  •  Opportunities to Use My Non-copyrighted Material
  •  Bibliography
  •  Your Guide and Worksheet


  • Stage 13
    Supporting Ingredient 13: Procedural Principles and Theories for Decision Making


    Creative Problem Solving and Decision Making

    The complete method of creative problem solving and decision making was originally developed by scientists with contributions from philosophers, psychologists, and many members of other domains. It was originally called the experimental method, the method of discovery, the method of inquiry, and then most commonly the scientific method or scientific method. Even though it is not a perfect method, it was such a phenomenally successful method that this scientific approach spread to all domains to some extent. There are no official standards for the procedural principles and theories used with it. However, they are quite extensive. I present here some of those that apply to decision makers. On the next page I cover ethics involved in decision making.

    The Basic Procedural Principle Is to Follow the 11 Stages of SM-14

    These 11 stages represent the mental activity stages of the complete act of problem solving and decision making thought. Proceeding in a systematic manner avoids aimless wandering. However, as these stages are subject neutral, you need to apply the supporting ingredients to actually reach a decision.

    Decision Making Theory

    These procedural principles and theories are also mentioned on pages describing Stages 1 - 11. However, I call special attention to the important ones below.

    • Do not ignore contrary evidence.
    • Strive to control biases, prejudices, and conflicts of interest.
    • Give due credit to team members, advisors, and others.
    • Exercise a practical, skeptical view of all data and assumptions.
    • Flexibility in procedure. You may skip from stage to stage.
    • Tests or experiments should be repeatable by others.
    • Communicate with those affected by or helping in the decision.
    • Divide difficult problems into sub-problems.
    • You often must settle for "good enough," as perfection is not always possible.
    • Control variables in reasoning or testing to get better results.
    • Effort must be made to falsify or disconfirm important evidence.
    • Intelligent compromise is often necessary for good human relationships.
    • Environmental, legal, and social considerations should be kept in mind.
    • Maintain confidentiality where needed.
    • No claims of infallibility should be made.
    • Use mathematics. Quantitative methods should be used when possible.
    • The use of your imagination is essential. Rational thinking is not enough.
    • Look for patterns, similarities, and differences.
    • Keep in mind what you want to achieve, preserve, and prevent.

    Ethical Decision Making

    Influence of Ethics on Decision Making

    Successful problem solving and decision making cannot be achieved without moral and ethical decision making. This applies whether you are working on a personal, business, public, or other decision. Ethics courses are being taught in our colleges and universities on an increasing scale. Many businesses and other organizations are giving employees training on ethics in accounting, financial, and other areas and establishing codes of ethics. There is now a large body of knowledge about ethics. Conflicting purposes and theories are often involved in decision making. This makes it hard to determine a proper course of decision making.

    Ethical Decision Making Process - Examples of Violations

    These have been abstracted from the literature as more applicable to decision makers.

    • Changing results of research in some way in response to pressure from funding source
    • Drawing important conclusions from incomplete data
    • Deliberate forgery of research results
    • Not answering honestly when questioned
    • Having a conflict of interest without disclosing it
    • Improper handling of funds budgeted for decision-making research
    • Using theoretical expectations instead of actual statistical results
    • Allowing political influences to alter research or decision
    • Ignoring contrary results and selective presentation of evidence
    • Improper control of variables in research to get better results
    • Failure to correct errors discovered later
    • Altering calibration of measurement devices
    • Outside consulting not disclosed that may affect decision making process
    • Acceptance or solicitation of gifts, etc. because of decision-related position
    • Altering decision to gain favor with superior
    • Using advance knowledge of decision for personal gain
    • Co-authors of reports not accurately reported
    • Non-disclosure of financial ties that might influence decision maker
    • Personal expense reimbursements not honestly submitted
    • Environmental, legal, and social considerations not kept in mind
    • Failure to report weak spots in data and analyses
    • Overoptimistic presentation of future projections to deceive

    Ethical Decision Making Models - Federal Policy on Research Misconduct

    This may be viewed by going to www.ostp.gov. It has been set up as a model for researchers.

    From this site: "Research misconduct is defined as fabrication, falsification, or plagiarism in proposing, performing, or reviewing research, or in reporting research results."

    Next: . . .Ingredient 14, Attributes and Thinking Skills. These are of prime importance in doing a good job of decision making.