Making a Decision

Having followed the stages of SM-14, you are ready to reach your final, or concluding, hypothesis (or decision). It is no longer just an educated guess, but a more certain conclusion. You have challenged your best alternative and found that it survived your challenge. You cannot claim it is "the truth" or a certainty, but you can say, "Based on the evidence available today, the balance of probability favors the view that" your decision is a good conclusion to the question at issue.

Making the Right Decision

Some qualities and conditions your concluding decision should cover:

• Be stated clearly, concisely, and in terms and language easy to understand.
• Must answer the problem (Stage 2) as finally defined.
• Is practicable and implementable.
• Fits into the present system.
• It is legal and ethical.
• It is not one you will regret later. You are prepared for the risks involved.
• Any stress that results your health can endure.
• As the future is involved, there are many uncertainties, but qualified reviewers would give your research a good grade.
• It takes into consideration short- , medium- , and long-term needs.
• You have shared your conclusion with any team or group. If it is a personal decision, you have shared it with those with whom you have close relationships.

Use Your Imagination.Creative Destruction

Consider the outcomes of your decision. Put yourself in the position of those affected. Try reading their minds. Use rest-illumination (see Stage 5). Creativity is great, but it often causes the destruction of existing products and conditions in our personal lives. After reaching your decision, think up a scenario of what is likely to happen. Remember the old economics principle of creative destruction.

Quiet Retreat

Before or while reaching a final decision, you or your group may want to retreat to a location away from your usual one.

Implementation of Decision

At Stage 11, you will take action to implement your decision. In preparation for this, use the checklist on the next page to consider implementation.

Contingency Planning

Decisions involve many uncertainties. After making your decision, unexpectedly you may see develop war, environmental disasters, big changes in financial markets, changes in consumer desires, failure of health, and on and on. Therefore, have contingency plans for what you will do if serious changes affect your decision. Consider the terms if you have to draw back.

Decision Evidence You Accepted

At times you have accepted evidence to support your views. Review the reliability of this evidence.

For Better Decision Making Use an Implementation Checklist

Change is often resented because of jealousy, resistance to change, skepticism, bias, loss of prestige, wrong assumptions, financial loss, authoritarianism, and inability to admit being wrong.

Here are some strategies, tools, and techniques for implementing a decision. Consider them carefully.

• Are you or your team qualified? Or must you obtain advice and assistance?
• Will you do it all at once or in stages?
• Any tests, trial implementation, or experiments?
• Soften the changes for those affected?
• If any goofs or errors, correct them immediately.
• Arrange for good, fast, and honest feedback
• Intelligent compromises are often needed.
• Who or what actions may try to harm implementation?
• Don't forget competitors' or opponents' responses.
• Have good plans for implementation and presentation of plans.
• Be sure implementation plans are efficiently communicated.
• Beat or anticipate the rumor mill; it can cause headaches.
• Beware of "yes men" giving you feedback they think you want.
• Any government, legal, or ethics to consider?
• Any faction that will fight the implementation?
• Has the market changed since you did your research?
• Be sure the people involved realize risks are being purposely taken.
• Set completion or target dates.
• Clear up irrational ideas that may harm implementation.
• Allocate time, resources, budget, etc.
• Identify possible bottlenecks, errors, or other potential troubles.
• Will outside experts or consultants be needed?
• Be careful to assign responsibilities.
• Measure progress as you proceed.
• If available, read case histories of similar decisions.
• Use charts and graphs to help implementation.
• Consider what the future may be after implementation.
• If things don't go well, upgrade your plans, strategies, processes, and efforts.
• If any one thing seems to be a big problem, apply the SM-14 model to it.
• What else may interfere?
• Don't let this list scare you - things can go well.

Next . . . Before taking action, we pause at Stage 10 to consider that in problem solving and decision making you must always keep an open mind.