Importance of Challenging Your Decision

One of the important reasons the scientific method is called "the greatest idea of all time" is its self-correcting features. Of these, Stage 8 - Challenge the Hypothesis - is a major self-correcting feature.

Challenging forces a more accurate decision. So rather than just going ahead and implementing the best alternative or decision you arrived at in Stage 6, you made it your hypothesis. Now you severely challenge it. Thus, you find any errors in it before others do. This saves time, money, and your reputation and makes you more accountable for your actions.

At Stage 6, you listed the consequences - good and bad - of the decision. Perhaps some changes were made or rewording done at Stage 7. You also made predictions. Now bring these data forward. They will be your base for challenge. Reexamine now. Is there more research you should do? Are there any more consequences you should add to your list? Unidentified consequences can cause a lot of trouble.

Now you must challenge your decision with confirming and disconfirming evidence.

Confirmation, Verification, Justification, and Validation

These and falsification theory are complicated subjects on which there is a whole body of literature. Here are some basic ways to confirm, verify, justify, and validate:

• Observation, test, and/or experimentation
• Mathematical calculations
• Statistical verification, sampling, surveys
• Verification by elimination of all competing hypotheses
• Verification by consistency with existing knowledge
• Prior experiences
• Predictions presented and examined that support your views

Decision Making Evidence - Disconfirming or Falsifying

It is a human tendency to support one's own beliefs, but accurate decision making requires that you make an effort to seek and consider impartially all disconfirming evidence. Consider these and other ways to falsify your claims:

Your Decision Doesn't Survive Your Challenge

If this occurs, you have to retreat to a prior stage. Continue your efforts to find a suitable decision.

Use Decision Making Techniques, Strategies, and Tools in Evaluating Your Decision

Remember my comments at Stages 6 and 7 about

• Technical methods
• Charts, graphs, fault trees
• Criteria
• Good enough
• Statistical and probability theory
• Risk versus reward
• Past experience
• Control your biases
• Written explanation of a hypothesis
• Time based on importance
• Cost/benefit and cost effectiveness
• Visualizing the future
• Decisions under conflict
• Behavioral theory

Other things to keep in mind:

• Effect of decision on the whole system - Decision usually affects other things.
• Predicting, challenging, and testing - You have to do these things to improve the accuracy of your forecast. Since they involve the future, they will never be perfect. However, doing them is far superior to relying on "common sense," intuition, and popular opinion.
• Variables - In testing, vary only one thing at a time. Keep others fixed.
• Loaded mind - Read widely. It is the loaded mind that finds clues.
• Vested interest - They must be ignored to make a real challenge.
• Rules, customs, procedures - Try not to let them spoil your challenge.
• Time and budget - Watch them closely.
• Tradeoffs - They are often needed to obtain your objective. Cost of tradeoffs?
• Decisions under uncertainty - With the unknown future involved, risk is inevitable. Risk must be taken, but use research to limit it as much as possible.
• Competition - Don't forget to estimate your competitors' or opponents' reaction to your decision.
• Contrary evidence - Be sure you have not ignored it.
• Avoid self-deception - Use insight in analyzing your own work.
• Has your decision held up? - If all the challenges have weakened it, you may have to restate it or go back to another stage.
• Existing computer models - Check to see if they can help you.
• Judgment - It is extremely important in decision making.
• Keep good records - People may want to examine or repeat your findings.
• Rule out fraud - Be sure no one has given you fraudulent data.

Do Your Best

If you have a technical background and are familiar with statistical quality control, probability theory, modeling, artificial intelligence, falsification theory, sampling, forecasting, surveying, and other technical methods, you will be well prepared for challenging. If not, get from these pages what is needed on complex decision making. You may want to consult experts or find people in your organization or others who you know to help you. Otherwise, just do the best you can after reviewing these pages.

Next . . . You have challenged your decision; now we take the resulting refinement to Stage 9 - Reach a Conclusion.