Data Driven Decision Making. This Is Your Schedule:

• Here at Stage 6 you will seek and evaluate the evidence, criteria, and consequences about your alternative decisions and choose the most promising one.
• At Stage 7 the best one becomes your educated guess or hypothesis.
• At Stage 8 you will challenge and examine it in great detail to ensure accuracy and for self-corrections. To get an idea of what you will do, briefly review Stage 8 now.

One Outstanding Decision

Sometimes you will have an alternative decision that stands out above all others. Be sure you are right. If so, take it to Stage 7. Then you must give it a full challenge at Stage 8.

End up with More than One Decision to Present or Too Many Alternatives

You may have a multiple hypothesis. This is not unusual, but it involves extra work at stages 7 and 8. If you have more than 4 or 5 alternatives on your list, try to reduce the number to 4 or 5 in order not to waste time. Do any overlap? Have you covered basic goals?

Need for Quick Action

Maybe you should have a multi-timed decision. You take temporary action now, but then come back and determine final actions later.

Decision Making Strategies Used in Evaluating the Evidence

Modeling, artificial intelligence, operations research, linear and integer programming, and other technical methods are being widely used by those with strong mathematical backgrounds. They are not covered here. For information, see books and the internet or consult experts.

Decision Making Fault Trees, Charts, Graphs, Accounting Data, Rates, Analyses, Surveys, and Others

You should use them in your evaluations. The literature on decision making shows a wide variety of them.

An Example of a Simple Ben Franklin or Ledger Evaluation Form:

Multi-criteria Decision Making

There is a wide variety of criteria. Several may be used at the same time. Many fall under headings such as suitability, feasibility, acceptability, emotions, and not too harmful. See supplemental pages at problemsolving.net and supplemental page, Criteria for Decision Making, on this site.

Bounded Rationality and Consequential Thinking

Bounded rationality in plain words means "good enough." You can't always gain the best solution, so you settle for a good enough decision or solution. In consequential thinking, develop your ability to foresee and predict consequences of various alternatives.

Example of a Standard Decision Making Evaluation Chart:

Evaluations of the alternatives in the chart above  can be whatever fits the decision you are working on. For example, they can be descriptive words, ratings of high, low, medium, a rating of 1 to 10, etc. Also may cover probability of occurring, importance to you, or other rating.

Decision Making Statistical Quality Control and Probability Theory

The literature gives many cases of people making incorrect estimates of the future because they don't use statistical quality control and probability theory. To become a good decision maker, study them or have help available.

Future Decision Making - Decisions under Uncertainty -Forecast the Future - Predicting

These are all involved in making decisions that involve the future. Study them to become a better decision maker. Decision making involves risk taking. Know your degree of willingness to take a risk to avoid later regrets. Make good evaluations to reduce risk as much as possible. Study your key uncertainties.

Decision Making Methods - Testing, Research, Experimenting, Sampling, and Surveys

Do these wherever they would be helpful to improve evidence. Attempt to falsify your theories as well as confirm them. Remember to use past experiences. These are usually of great assistance to you. However, the literature warns that people often forget, are selective in remembering, etc. So be careful.

Decision Making Strategies - Other Things to Consider or Do:

Next . . . In Stage 7, make your selected alternative your educated guess or hypothesis.