Rational Decision Making

An efficient search for information and evidence is essential for making a good decision. Search everywhere. Explore all angles, leads, clues, strategies, techniques, and sources of information. Pick out the essential principles of the material you read, see, or hear. Write them down in an organized way. Read supporting ingredients 12, 13, and 14 before starting your search. Here are some ideas to help you and trigger your mind.

Data Driven Decision Making

Organize your Sources of Information, Data, Processes, and Supplies:

• Use internet search engines
• Visit libraries; read periodicals
• Visit new and used bookstores
• Seek discussions with friends
• Take field trips; go to conventions
• Accumulate your own library
• Use Post-it notes to mark pages
• Build a file system for papers
• Set up computer files
• Decide what supplies you need

Limited Information Principle

Before loading your mind with data, other people's opinions, and so-called "facts," list all alternative decisions that you can think of for your main problem and any sub-problems. This allows you to use your imagination before being influenced by prevailing thoughts and theories.

Limit your Search

There is a universe of data and information. Don't depend only on the internet for information. Limit your search to a practical amount and don't overload your mental capacity to understand by collecting too much. To avoid this, organize proper file folders, notebooks, computer files, and keep a log.

Economy

Keep in mind budget, cost/benefit, cost effectiveness, time, and energy. This is of special importance in management decision making.

Determine your Decision Making Strategy

You are going to:

• Do a complete search.
• Do a limited search
• Look for "good enough" alternatives
• Review purposes, goals, and objectives

Generate Creative and Logical Solutions (Stage 5)

This is listed as a separate stage to be sure that it is done. In actual practice, you should be watching for and thinking about alternate solutions to evaluate at Stage 6 while you are searching, exploring, and gathering evidence. Review Stage 5 now.

Decision Making Scenarios

Explore the history of similar decision problems previously solved.

Work Ahead on Other Stages

If you find information useful for the stages ahead, make notes for those stages as you search. Your search should trigger visions and scenarios of what may be ahead. Remember what you want to achieve, preserve, and prevent.

Future Decision Making - Decisions under Uncertainty, Probability Theory, & Risk

Decision making usually involves the future. Therefore, it involves uncertainty and the difficult task of predicting the future. It is valuable to know probability theory rather than just guessing.

How much risk are you willing to take? See "Risks Are Usually Involved in Decision Making" for some guidance. As you search, watch for information that will reduce the uncertainty and risk. Talk to customers, employees, friends, associates, and government officials. See also page 43 on Decision Making under Uncertainty, Forecasting, Predicting.

Communicate and Consult

Keep your decision group, associates, and those affected up to date. In complex situations, consider consulting those with expert knowledge.

Behavior Decision Making Theory

See "Behavior Decision Theory." It is important to understand behavior theory.

Decision Making Consequences

As you find alternate solutions that will be studied at Stage 6, be alert for information about the possible consequences. Look for both favorable and unfavorable consequences.

Always be alert for accidental or surprise discoveries.