Decision Making Goals

These are the end results you want to achieve as a result of the decision you arrive at. Up until the previous half-century, people just gave a little thought to these and kept them in mind when solving problems and making decisions. Today everything is so much more complex that we must have a model formula that includes a stage for Goals and Planning. We must spend time to investigate our goals thoroughly and reduce our work to writing or to computer. Here are some things to consider in setting your goals.

• Before setting goals, do your goal research. How do your goals relate to your or to your organization's overall goals? Be sure you see the big picture.
• Goals must be realistic, achievable, and challenging and must provide growth.
• We usually have multiple objectives. Conflicting goals must be analyzed.
• Review initial state, present state, and goal state.
• Aim for exactness on important points, but remember that perfection is not always possible or affordable. Consider "good enough."
• Goals may be short term, medium, or long term.
• Cover the real purpose of the decision; stay properly focused.
• Be sure goals are worth cost/benefits. What degree of risk is acceptable?
• Consider moral values, ethics, emotions, and happiness.
• Are people and resources available to research the decision?
• Sometimes goals have to be reached by degrees.
• Remember what you want to achieve, preserve, and prevent.
• Goals must not upset the full system or process they are part of.
• Consider sub-goals to achieve the major goal.
• Reaching goals now may be costly but may pay off big in the future.
• If a decision group is involved, enlist them in setting goals.
• Goals may have to change as the world is constantly changing.
• Everything is not black and white. Think also in shades of gray.
• Are your "facts" really knowledge or only opinions or assumptions.
• Consider the consequences of reaching goals. You may have to make tradeoffs.
• Enlist an assistant or expert to help. Are they familiar with decision models?
• Use your imagination or seek creative thinkers.
• Remember human factors. Review behavioral psychology. Good judgment is essential.
• Consider working backward from Stage 11 to clarify goals.
• How will the community and religious factions react to goals?
• Be careful of the "expected utility theory." People don't always do what is best for them.
• Anticipate the possibility that your goals will produce conflicts and opposition.
• How will your competitors or opponents react to your goals?
• How will your goals fit into cultural values and society?
• Constraints may limit or affect your goals.
• Consider legal, environmental, community, or global restrictions.

Decision Making Planning

In today's era of complexity, budgets, and government grants, we need to plan carefully and keep proper records. The SM-14 formula provides an ideal base for planning. Here are some points to keep in mind:

• Place priority on identifying and solving sub-problems or sub-decisions.
• Organize your advisors, team, and consultants. Watch for counter actions.
• Keep your lines of communication working properly.
• Line up your time, supplies, resources, facilities, and people.
• Use models, artificial intelligence, and other technologies.
• Line up libraries, books, and internet sites that will help you.
• Keep a log and financial records that may be required.
• Multiple goals and objectives with consequences are usually involved.
• Ask subordinates or family what problems the decision will cause them.
• Be careful of being too optimistic or pessimistic. Balance these.
• Keep in mind economy of time, money, thought, and energy.
• Cost/benefits or effectiveness are of prime importance.
• What future cost or obligations may be involved?
• Establish your priorities. Be careful to see the big picture.
• Compile your list of criteria and values. Cost of tradeoffs?
• Prepare sketches, charts, diagrams, and other visual aids.
• Be innovative and creative. Watch for ideas, methods, processes, and strategies.
• Think globally, in both what to do and affects of global activities.
• Take steps to counteract the rumor mill.
• Consider moral values, ethics, emotions, stresses, and anxieties.
• Have plans for each stage of SM-14. It is a flexible method.
• Seriously consider contrary evidence and opinions.
• What repetitive and routine decision can be programmed or modeled?
• Explore risks involved and what degree of risk you will take.
• Compile a list of tentative solutions as you go along.
• Consider legal, political, environmental, and community restrictions.
• When is a decision really needed? Avoid a biased call for action now.
• Carefully consider your competitors' and opponents' counter actions to your decision.
• Study what is involved in making decisions under uncertainties.
• Review past experiences, but interpret them carefully.
• Assign responsibilities. Consider peoples' core competences. Motivate your people.
• Beware of being wrongly influenced by sunk costs.
• Draw up a list of anticipated obstacles and difficulties. Consider constraints.
• Check on assumptions, opinions, judgments, and your biases and those of others.
• Beware of dishonesty, false information, selective presentation of facts, and hidden agendas.
• Ask for honest feedback and audit of your plan as you proceed.
• If mathematical calculations will help, have a qualified person to do them.
• Consider decisions you will have to make after this one. Look ahead.
• Consider establishing a permanent planning room.

Next . . . Stage 4. We begin to work on searching, exploring, and gathering the evidence about our decision problem.