Decision Making Strategy - Present the decision needed in the form of a question

An idea, problem, decision, or tentative theory should be presented in the form of a question because it encourages you to keep an open mind and thus seek a good decision and not prove a statement. A question is a tool and a guide for productive thinking.

Warning: The correct answer to the wrong question is no solution to the real problem. Incorrectly playing around with a symptom of the real problem will put you on the wrong course. Be sure to seek out the real basic purpose and problem or decision needed and follow the decision process.

Classify in your mind the problem decision to help define it properly:

• A major or minor one?
• A short-term or long-term one?
• A policy decision? Be careful of setting a precedent.
• A group decision or team assisted? Consult others for their definitions.
• A technical, legal, financial, personal, social, religious, business, professional, union, political, environmental, management decision or another class?
• A reversible decision or a permanent one?
• Not of great importance. The first alternative that will work is OK.
• Is the problem routine and subject to programming?

Problem solving activities to help you in defining the decision problem:

• How urgently is the decision really needed? The more time to research the better.
• Determine the present state and goal state to help define the problem.
• Review with groups and others issues, purpose, and proposed questions.
• Too broad a question can't be solved, but too narrow a question limits results.
• Be clear and brief but thought provoking. Put thoughts on paper or computer.
• Review the origin of issues or problem. Try to see the big picture and complete process.
• Do you have enough information? If not, jump ahead to Stage 4 and search for more.
• Consider whether this problem is part of a system that involves other decisions.
• Cut the problem down to size. You don't want a lengthy description of the decision problem. The great complexity that exists today requires considering the limits on human rationality.
• Create concept maps and models, and arrange diagrams to help frame the question.
• Restate or reframe the decision several different ways before the final choice.
• Disconfirm or ask what is wrong with the decision needed.
• Skip reading all the stages of SM-14 may help you reach the real question.
• In comparing look for similarities and differences.
• If you have already started a list of tentative solutions or decisions, consult it to see whether they affect your definition of the problem or sub-problems.
• If you are mathematically inclined, present the question in a different form.
• Is the decision so complex that you should consult with or hire an expert?
• Keep in mind what you want to achieve, preserve, and prevent.

Complex Decisions Can Be Solved More Easily by Breaking Them Down to Sub-problems

In complex problem solving and decision making, the major question often seems impossible to answer or very difficult to solve. However, the standard decision making technique is to "divide and conquer." You should analyze the problem for its major sub-problems and sub-sub-problems and plan to solve these first. Prepare a written list. In view of this, you can keep your question simpler knowing that sub-problems will be broken out in arriving at a decision solution.

The Strategy of Presenting the Decision Problem as a Question

If you make a statement such as "We need to build a branch plant in New Jersey," your study will be slanted toward substantiating the statement. However, if you state instead, "Do we need to build a branch plant in New Jersey?" your study will challenge whether it is really needed. If a branch plant is needed, should it be in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, or elsewhere?

Urgent, Emergency, or Containment Decision

• Is the person in charge capable of rapid mental processes?
• Is it really needed immediately? Were communications and judgment correct?
• Can it be broken down quickly into sub-problems? Will solving a sub-problem eliminate the urgency and be the best decision making strategy?
• Quickly mentally review what you want to achieve, preserve, and prevent.
• What will the loss in waiting be against the gain in properly studying the problem?
• If there is time, quickly review this book and make notes on one of the model guide forms.
• Even if there is urgency, consider several alternative decisions.
• Is it dangerous? Lives involved?
• Consider assembling an emergency task force.
• Predict consequences and alert people.
• Anticipate stress for yourself and others.
• A good intuitive background will be of great help.
• Don't make decisions in the heat of anger and unnecessary urgency.
• The person presenting the urgency of a decision may be biased.

Decision Making Theory - Look for the Big Picture

Before defining your decision problem, try to look at the big picture. This is not always easy. Think and read extensively on the area of your decision. If you have symptoms, trace them back to the real problem. Is the real problem part of an even greater problem?

Preventing Bad Decisions

Be careful of "common sense" statements and prevailing assumptions. Challenge statements and opinions of experts and authoritative leaders. Consider what is really needed instead of opinions.

Future Decision Making

While it is early to look ahead to the possible outcome of your decision process, it may help you in defining it, so do so. Also consider what decisions will be needed after this one.

Next . . . Stage 3. Now that you know the decision needed, consider your goals and do your planning. Your goals will influence and guide you in your search for a successful decision.