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CONTENTS OF 48-PAGE BOOKLET:
  •  The Big Picture
  •  Problem Solving and Decision Making
  •  The Decision Making Process
  •  System of Decision Making and Problem Solving
  •  Intuitive Decision Making
  •  Short Formula for Decision Making
  •  Full Model and Formula
  •  Specific Individual “Sciences”


    • STAGES AS APPLIED TO DECISION MAKING:
    1. Curious Observation
    2. Is There a Problem?
    3. Goals and Planning
    4. Search, Explore and Gather the Evidence
    5. Generate Creative & Logical Alternative Solutions
    6. Evaluate the Evidence
    7. Make the Educated Guess (Hypothesis)
    8. Challenge the Hypothesis
    9. Reach a Conclusion
    10. Suspend Judgment
    11. Take Action

    SUPPORTING INGREDIENTS:
    12. Creative, Non-Logical, Logical & Technical Methods
    13. Procedural Principles & Theories
    14. Attributes & Thinking Skills

  •  Group or Team Decision Making
  •  Management Decision Making Technique
  •  Managerial Decision Making
  •  Behavior Decision Making Theory
  •  Accounting for Risks Involved
  •  Decision Making under Uncertainty, Forecasting and Predicting
  •  Miscellaneous Strategies
  •  Opportunities to Use My Non-copyrighted Material
  •  Bibliography
  •  Your Guide and Worksheet
    		•

    Decision Making under Uncertainty, Forecasting, Predicting


    Probability Theory, Statistical Decision Theory, Game Theory

    These are important to know in forecasting and predicting. If you are not familiar with them, seek consultants or others to help you on important business matters.

    Decision Making Games

    There is a great deal of information in the literature about game theory as an aid to learning decision making.

    Some Attributes and Knowledge Requirements for a Good Forecaster:

    • A good logical reasoner and adequately researches a project
    • Knows economics, accounting, cost vs benefits, and profit and loss
    • Knows technology, current trends, and keeps up with the competition
    • Imaginative and good visualizer. Reads extensively. Knows the big picture.
    • Compensates for lack of any of these by seeking advice or study

    Decision Making Strategies:

    Internet about Decision Making. Here you will find advice for predicting for various domains and sub-domains. Also seek books on the subject.

    Decision Sciences. There has been extensive development of decisions concerning consumer buying, medicine, election forecasting, credit extension, risks, and many other areas.

    Important Predictions and Forecast. Apply all the stages of SM-14 to the prediction or forecast itself to help improve its reliability. Changes occur over time. You can prevent disasters by careful review of your predictions and forecast.

    Avoid Predictable Surprises. Often a decision is needed but no action is taken until a crisis develops. Study Stage 1, Curious Observation, of SM-14 to avoid this.

    Biased Forecast Used in Decision Making. Forecasts made to suit top leaders, yourself, or others can cause serious harm.

    Anchoring and Adjusting. Your knowledge of the past and present provides an anchoring base for predicting, but adjustments must be made for events that may occur in the future.

    Predictions Good and Bad. Keep records of those you make. Past experiences are helpful in making forecasts, but research shows that memory is not always reliable. Read about other people's experiences in predicting.

    Forecast of the Future. The further your forecast is into the future the greater the chance it will be less accurate.

    Decision Making Models and Software Programs. These can improve the reliability of forecasts.