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CONTENTS OF 48-PAGE BOOKLET:
  •  The Big Picture
  •  Problem Solving and Decision Making
  •  The Decision Making Process
  •  System of Decision Making and Problem Solving
  •  Intuitive Decision Making
  •  Short Formula for Decision Making
  •  Full Model and Formula
  •  Specific Individual “Sciences”


    • STAGES AS APPLIED TO DECISION MAKING:
    1. Curious Observation
    2. Is There a Problem?
    3. Goals and Planning
    4. Search, Explore and Gather the Evidence
    5. Generate Creative & Logical Alternative Solutions
    6. Evaluate the Evidence
    7. Make the Educated Guess (Hypothesis)
    8. Challenge the Hypothesis
    9. Reach a Conclusion
    10. Suspend Judgment
    11. Take Action

    SUPPORTING INGREDIENTS:
    12. Creative, Non-Logical, Logical & Technical Methods
    13. Procedural Principles & Theories
    14. Attributes & Thinking Skills

  •  Group or Team Decision Making
  •  Management Decision Making Technique
  •  Managerial Decision Making
  •  Behavior Decision Making Theory
  •  Accounting for Risks Involved
  •  Decision Making under Uncertainty, Forecasting and Predicting
  •  Miscellaneous Strategies
  •  Opportunities to Use My Non-copyrighted Material
  •  Bibliography
  •  Your Guide and Worksheet
    		•

    Accounting for Risks Involved in Decision Making


    Risk-Based Decision Making

    Risk taking is involved in decision making since you are usually dealing with decisions that involve an uncertain future. Accounting for these is an important part of decision making. Decision making and risk taking are involved in many domains, such as economics, business, political science, mathematics and statistics, psychology, and other social sciences. There is even a Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. Since the subject is so well developed and complicated, all I do here is present some highlights.

    Decision Making Tools & Techniques Governing Risk

    Make a Decision Tree to Better Understand Risk. A written visual diagram of the alternatives and the risks involved will help you make a decision.

    Risk is Part of Growth. Risks must be taken in decision making. Learn to be a good risk taker.

    Fear of Risks. This is often more emotional than rational, so you must stop to think and study the subject to take intelligent risks.

    Use a Decision Making Model Formula Such as SM-14. One of best ways to reduce risk is to follow this formula in your complex decision making.

    Proceed in Incremental Steps in Decision Making Implementation. Often risk can be reduced by proceeding in incremental steps in decision making or implementation.

    Talk to People Who Have Taken Similar Risks. This can be helpful. It is always wise to "pick the brains" of more experienced friends or associates.

    Probability Theory. Knowledge of this is often essential since the future is so uncertain. There are plenty of books on the subject.

    Many People Are Afraid of Risk Taking. Research has shown that most people prefer a small sure gain to a larger uncertain one. Remember "no risk, no gain."

    Managerial Policies on Risk Taking. Those in charge of other risk takers have the problem of dealing with those types who fear risk taking to the gambling type. Therefore it is advisable to have good communications on risk taking as this is the heart of the growth and success of enterprises.

    Measure Decision Making Risk. Results should be measured against expectations. This way you provide for early correction of unexpected results.

    Risk Analysis in Decision Making. Determine what risks are involved, how they might be avoided or reduced, which are acceptable. Rate the various risks involved. What are the main or key uncertainties? What are the probable outcomes of these uncertainties?

    Feelings of Regret. How strong will your emotions be if you take a risk and end up losing?

    Status Quo Tendency Involved in Decision Making. There are many times people should take action but there is a human tendency to do nothing.