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CONTENTS OF 48-PAGE BOOKLET:
  •  The Big Picture
  •  Problem Solving and Decision Making
  •  The Decision Making Process
  •  System of Decision Making and Problem Solving
  •  Intuitive Decision Making
  •  Short Formula for Decision Making
  •  Full Model and Formula
  •  Specific Individual “Sciences”


    • STAGES AS APPLIED TO DECISION MAKING:
    1. Curious Observation
    2. Is There a Problem?
    3. Goals and Planning
    4. Search, Explore and Gather the Evidence
    5. Generate Creative & Logical Alternative Solutions
    6. Evaluate the Evidence
    7. Make the Educated Guess (Hypothesis)
    8. Challenge the Hypothesis
    9. Reach a Conclusion
    10. Suspend Judgment
    11. Take Action

    SUPPORTING INGREDIENTS:
    12. Creative, Non-Logical, Logical & Technical Methods
    13. Procedural Principles & Theories
    14. Attributes & Thinking Skills

  •  Group or Team Decision Making
  •  Management Decision Making Technique
  •  Managerial Decision Making
  •  Behavior Decision Making Theory
  •  Accounting for Risks Involved
  •  Decision Making under Uncertainty, Forecasting and Predicting
  •  Miscellaneous Strategies
  •  Opportunities to Use My Non-copyrighted Material
  •  Bibliography
  •  Your Guide and Worksheet
    		•

    Behavior Decision Making Psychology


    Decision Making Psychology. A large amount of research has been done on behavior psychology as it affects decision making. In college decision science courses this is usually extensively covered. Here I have abstracted a few principles from the literature for you to keep in mind and for study.

    Decision Making Expected Utility Theory. This widely discussed theory claims that people should act to maximize their expected utility or benefit. However, much research has shown that they often don't do what is best for themselves.

    Overly Optimistic.People will often exaggerate benefits or future expectations and underestimate costs. They rely too much on their uneducated judgment.

    People Resist Change Resulting in Poor Decision Making. The more radical the change, the greater the resistance. Once committed to an idea, people are slow to change, even when confronted with contradictory evidence.

    Decision Making Styles - General Beliefs.People tend to believe that which they notice is strongly believed by many others.

    Behavioral Decision Making Finds That We Pick People & Actions We Like. In making choices we tend to pick people and actions we like.

    Sunk Cost Involved in Decision Making. If we have a lot of money or effort in a project, we tend to stick to it, even though it is not often practical and should be abandoned and not affect our decision.

    Omission Bias.We regret actions that fail to turn out to be beneficial more than we regret failing to take action on things that do turn out to be beneficial.

    Decision Making Under Uncertainty Results in Risk in Decision Making. In choosing alternatives we prefer a small sure gain to an uncertain large one. We will risk a large loss to avoid a more certain small one.

    Saving Face or Embarrassment.People will make unwise decisions to avoid having to admit that they goofed.

    In Decision Making Expect Errors. In complex situations errors are inevitable.

    Ignoring Contrary Evidence in Decision Making. People tend to seek evidence supporting their views and fail to seek contrary evidence.

    Qualitative Decision Making Suffers From Improper Interpretation and Poor Memory of Past Experiences in Decision Making. This results in incorrect decisions.

    Personal Characteristics Involved in Decision Making. We are all different. This affects our decision making thinking.

    Anchoring Trap in Decision Making.We tend to give disproportionate weight to the first information we receive. Thus our thinking is anchored to what we first hear.

    Decision Making Capacity - People Cannot Process a Lot of Information in Problem Solving & Decision Making. Thus the use of a method such as SM-14 helps them reach a better decision.

    Naturalistic Decision Making Involves Values.These are used for evaluating various matters. They vary from person to person.

    Adolescent Decision Making. In "Thinking and Deciding," second edition (1994) Jonathan Baron states:

    We have evidence that it is possible to teach decision making to children and adolescents. For example, Kourilsky and Murray (1981) reported on a program designed to teach "economic reasoning" to 5th- and 6th-grade children.